By: Nathaniel Ascher
Although many expected Vlad Guerrero Jr. to be running away with the AL Rookie of the Year Award by now, that is not necessarily the case. As we slowly approach the All-Star break and the trade deadline, the candidates to win the AL Rookie of the Year award are starting to become set in stone. There are three candidates that stand out from the rest: Michael Chavis, Brandon Lowe, and of course, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and they happen to all be from the AL East.
Going into the 2019 season, the Red Sox didn’t expect Michael Chavis to be a key part of their offense, but he most certainly has. With Eduardo Nunez, Dustin Pedroia, and Brock Holt at 2nd and Rafael Devers at 3rd, the Red Sox infield looked set. However, when Brock Holt and Dustin Pedroia hit the I.L., an infield spot opened up. The Sox as a result called up Chavis, their top prospect, hoping for him to fill their hole for the time being. He is still in the majors today, thanks to all of the success he’s had so far in 2019. In 165 at bats, Chavis is hitting .264 with 10 HRs and 28 RBIs. He has the 2nd best War among AL rookies, 3rd most HRs, and the 2nd best SLG% among qualified AL rookies. Overall, Michael Chavis has exceeded everyone’s expectations and has established himself as a major candidate to win the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year award.
The Tampa Bay Rays always seem to find diamonds in the rough, and Brandon Lowe is no exception. At the end of Spring Training, Lowe and the Rays agreed to a 6yr/$24 million extension, locking him up until the end of the 2025 season. In 129 ABs in 2018, Lowe was nothing special. He hit .233 with 6 HRs, 25 RBIs, and had a .324 OBP. Physically, Lowe is the average MLB player, standing 5 foot 10 tall and weighing 185 lbs. The Rays were optimistic that Lowe would turn into an above average MLB player, and that’s why they decided to lock him up this spring training. So far, he has been just what they wanted, and more. In 197 ABs in 2019, Lowe is batting .279 with 11 HRs, 36 RBIs, and a .855 OPS. Compared to other AL rookies, Lowe is 1st in HRs, RBIs, WAR, hits, and walks. All of these stats prove that Brandon Lowe is off to an exceptional start in 2019 and should be in the mix if not on top of the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year race.
We all knew that Vlad Guerrero Jr. would be called up, it was just a matter of when. On April 26th, he made his MLB debut and instantly turned into the Blue Jays’ franchise player. Although he got off to a slow start, he has been picking things up as of late. In May, Guerrero hit .253 in 95 ABs with 6 HRs and 12 RBIs, the best month of his young career so far. One interesting fact regarding Guerrero is his performance in team wins and losses: In team wins, Guerrero is hitting an outstanding .349 with 4 HRs and a 1.066 OPS. However, when the Blue Jays lose, Guerrero is hitting .149 with 2 HRs and a .601 OPS. These stats show how Guerrero’s performance has affected his team’s results so far in his young career. Overall in 117 ABs, Guerrero is hitting .248 with 6 HRs, 29 RBIs, and a .771 OPS. If Vlad Jr. can keep up his recent form, look for him to make a push to be the leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year award.
It is quite coincidental and telling that the top three AL rookies in my opinion in 2019 are all from the AL East. Michael Chavis has come out of nowhere to help a struggling Red Sox team stay afloat. Brandon Lowe proved that he is worth his recent contract extension, and maybe more. Vlad Guerrero Jr. struggled at first, but his recent success at the plate shows he is capable of becoming the player everybody thinks he will become. Although Brandon Lowe is currently leading the race, Chavis and Guerrero aren’t far behind. As summer approaches and the season rolls on, the AL Rookie of the Year race will only get more intense.
Don’t be low on Lowe; he’s been the best AL rookie so far in 2019.
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