By: Seth Stancil
It’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Baltimore Orioles were historically bad last season. The O’s had more losses than any other American League team in the past decade as they finished at an all-time club worst 47-115. After shipping off superstar Manny Machado at the deadline last year along with other key players like Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Brad Brach, many O’s fans have turned sour on the organization and the team has become a punchline among other baseball fans. I know this because I grew up around and still live close to Baltimore and experience the sadness and anger toward the organization firsthand on a regular basis. Despite all of the negatives that are hanging around the Orioles’ name right now, this article will highlight the positive things the O’s have in their corner heading towards the future and show how they will become a contender again in time.
To properly highlight why the Orioles tore their team apart and have to start from scratch, we have to look back to before the 2017 season began. The O’s were coming into the spring of ‘17 fresh off of their 3rd playoff appearance in 5 seasons, but in the season prior they were eliminated from the Wild Card game in devastating fashion, losing on a walk-off home run in extra innings to the rival Blue Jays. This string of contention by the Orioles plus the added pressure of finally delivering in the playoffs prompted then-general manager Dan Duquette to resign many players who had standout seasons to lucrative multi-year deals like Chris Davis prior to the 2016 season and to a lesser extent Mark Trumbo before 2017. All of the money spent combined with the other talent on the team (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, etc.) had many people excited for the 2017 Orioles season. The excitement around the team quickly faded; they never really gained traction throughout the season and finished in last place with a record of 75-87. After the lackluster season, the O’s leadership declined to acknowledge the fact that they were not on the level of the true contenders in the AL.
Instead of starting a necessary rebuild at the beginning of 2018, Duquette opted to invest more money to bring in more starting pitching in Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner. Buck Showalter made the decision to make Machado the full-time SS in an effort to make him happy and want to stay with the organization. The O’s former leadership thought they at least had a shot at retaining Machado on a team friendly contract if all went well. Showalter even said the O’s were “lying in the weeds” when asked about contending in 2018. Management genuinely thought the O’s had a chance to fight for the playoffs in the ‘18 season, but they couldn’t have been more wrong. They were at a disadvantage from the start as Alex Cobb was injured until mid-May and never found his groove all season. He finished with a 5-15 record and a 4.90 ERA, by far his worst record and ERA in any year of his career where he started at least 20 games. Andrew Cashner pitched even worse, as he ended the season with a 4-15 record and a 5.29 ERA, which was also the worst season in his career (min. 20 appearances). Dylan Bundy (4th overall pick in 2011 by the O’s) finished at a very disappointing 8-16 with a 5.45 ERA, not at all living up to his draft expectations. Kevin Gausman, the hyped 4th overall pick of the 2012 draft by Baltimore, went 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA with the O’s in ‘18, but after he was traded to the Braves he went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA, adding insult to injury. The Orioles’ starting pitching was so poor in 2018 they were often out of games before they really even started.
To make matters worse, Chris Davis ended his season with one of the worst performances in MLB history, batting an all-time league worst .168 average along with 16 homers in 128 games. Davis finished 2018 in a 1-37 slump before being shut down by management for the rest of the season. Mark Trumbo missed all of April and September in 2018 despite being productive in between which also hurt the O’s big time. All of the failure and dysfunction destroyed any small chance the Birds had at resigning Machado, who was the only Oriole player in 2018 who wasn’t seeming to have their worst career season. Machado was hitting .315 with 24 home runs with 65 RBI’s before Dan Duquette made the decision to move the player Orioles’ fans had loved since the moment he was called up in 2012. On July 18, 2018, the superstar infielder was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package of players featuring prospects like outfielder Yusniel Diaz and pitcher Zach Pop. In the following days leading up to the trade deadline, the Orioles jettisoned many players fans had grown fond of over the years; All-Star closer Zach Britton was traded to the hated Yankees, long time Oriole Chris Tillman was released, promising second basemen and 2017 most-valuable Oriole award winner Jonathan Schoop was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, and Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Kevin Gausman were all traded to the Atlanta Braves. The O’s roster was stripped to the bone and they finished at a putrid 47-115. They were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention on August 11th, got shut out 15 times, were swept in a series an absurd 21 times, won only 19 road games, and went an awful 23-53 against the rest of the AL East (including a 0-10 record at the Rogers Centre).
After the season ended Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette were informed they would not be rejoining the Orioles in 2019. Even though the Birds were historically bad in 2018, there is no denying how important their tenures in Baltimore were. Buck and Dan brought the postseason back to Baltimore and Showalter was essentially beloved by everyone, but delaying the inevitable rebuild hurt the team in many ways so it was definitely time to shake things up. Ownership knew they had a very important hire to make at GM/executive VP of the organization. Not only would the new GM pick the future stars of the team, but they would also hire the new manager to fill Buck’s shoes.
After an extensive process which involved a myriad of potential candidates, the Orioles had found their guy. On November 16th, 2018, the Baltimore Orioles hired Mike Elias. Here, the club finally decided to trend with the rest of the MLB towards analytics and sabermetrics (like many teams have been doing for years) instead of desperately clinging to their stale ways. Elias graduated from Yale in 2006 and became a scout for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007. When the Astros hired away Jeff Luhnow from the Cardinals to be their GM, he brought along Elias to be the director of amateur scouting. Mike Elias is largely credited for the Astros’ selection of Carlos Correa in the 2012 draft. In 2016 when David Stearns left Houston to become the Brewers’ GM, Elias was promoted to his former role of assistant GM to Jeff Luhnow. In this role, Mike had control of player development and minor league operations. During his time in H-Town, the Astros had one of the very best farm systems in all of baseball and built through the draft to eventually become the 2017 World Series Champions. In Mike’s first season in Houston in 2012 the ‘Stros went 55-107, but in 5 years he helped build them up to the ultimate goal in baseball. Shortly after Elias was hired, he brought in the forward-thinking former NASA engineer Sig Mejdal to be his assistant GM. Elias and Mejdal have over a decade of work history together, as they both worked in the scouting department in St. Louis together for 5 seasons. Both Elias and Mejdal made the transition to Houston together where they worked closely using sabermetrics and making analytically based decisions that helped the Astros move from the bottom of their division to World Champions in time. Elias hired Mejdal to help develop an analytical culture in Baltimore similar to the one that has been established in Houston.
After about a month of interviewing potential managerial candidates, Mike Elias made the decision to hire on the former Cubs’ bench coach in Brandon Hyde to become the 20th skipper in Orioles’ history. Hyde has a deep knowledge of the game of baseball; he played for the Chicago White Sox organization from 1997-2000 and made it up to the AAA level. Hyde was a minor league manager for the Florida Marlins’ organization from 2005-2009 and was an interim bench coach for them in 2010. In 2011 Brandon shed the interim title and served as the Marlins’ bench coach through the 2012 season. In 2013 Hyde made the move to the Chicago Cubs’ organization and was named bench coach after the ‘13 season concluded and Rick Renteria was hired on as the Cubbies’ skipper. When Joe Maddon was hired prior to the ‘15 season he brought Dave Martinez with him from Tampa Bay to be his bench coach, thus, Hyde was moved to be the first base coach. After Martinez was hired to be the Nationals’ manager prior to 2018, Brandon moved back to being the bench coach. In his time in baseball Hyde has gotten to learn from two of the most knowledgeable minds in the game in Jack McKeon and Joe Maddon. Brandon also absorbed a lot from Maddon in particular when they roamed the same dugout. Joe Maddon is known for being a baseball genius in just about every possible way, as he will use any bold strategy if he feels that it gives his team the best chance to win.
“I’m not into the word ‘rebuild’ to be honest with you - I’m into the word compete. We’re going to compete” - Brandon Hyde. Many people scoffed when Hyde said this at his introductory press conference, but I personally believe Brandon means what he says. It may not immediately translate into wins, but the O’s will definitely create a new identity this season under their new skipper. Gone are the days where they had no priority for their speed and centered the team around the longball; this spring Hyde has managed the team exactly how he plans to manage them throughout this season and in the future: aggressive on all fronts. The Orioles are traditionally a slow-footed, heavy swinging team built to maximize on the small confines of Camden Yards. Mike Elias has already begun tailoring the team to fit Hyde’s aggressive nature as a manager even though the Orioles had a fairly quiet offseason. The small moves and the moves Elias didn’t make at all clearly shows the direction the team wants to go moving forward.
The O’s chose the speedy, contact-hitting SS Ritchie Martin in the Rule-5 draft and he looks poised to assume the starting role at short. Martin fits in nicely in the middle infield with proven baserunner Jonathan Villar, who will most likely be the everyday second basemen. The Orioles also recently traded for a potential diamond in the rough in outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. who was a hyped prospect at the time he was drafted by the Blue Jays but never really caught on in Toronto. Smith Jr. will be a part of the deep outfield mix for the O’s in 2019 and could no doubt help out the club if his minor league numbers can reasonably transition to the pros. Despite the under the radar moves the Birds made in preparation for the upcoming season, the new front office decided not to bring back franchise icon Adam Jones much to the dismay of the O’s fanbase. I have heard many fans ask “Why wouldn’t the Orioles bring back Jones? He could help groom new young players.” Others explain, “AJ was the only big name we had left, I feel like I don’t know this team anymore.” Although it’s sad to see such a beloved player leave town, it was the right decision. Adam Jones is a fantastic player and an amazing mentor and while I agree it would’ve been nice to have some veteran leadership in the locker room, having Jones on the roster would have crowded the outfield even more and slowed the development of a handful of the Orioles’ top prospects. Adam wouldn’t have put the Orioles in the race for anything by himself, and new management didn’t want to keep young guys like Cedric Mullins and eventually Austin Hays and Yusniel Diaz from getting their chances to play. While I am sad that Adam’s time in Charm City has come to an end, I’m excited to see him continue his career in Arizona (watch for him to get traded to a contender that needs a bat at the deadline) and I’m ecstatic to see what the future holds for the O’s crowded outfield.
Speaking of the Orioles’ outfield, it is currently their deepest asset. Highlighted by the sweet-swinging Trey Mancini followed by the aforementioned Cedric Mullins and the recently traded for Dwight Smith Jr., this rendition of the Birds’ outfield is most likely going to be the most productive part of their 2019 team. Super utility man Drew Jackson is slated to be the backup outfielder which could leave the team with no true 4th OF player as they might choose to carry an extra pitcher or infielder for the majority of the season. Anthony Santander will start the season at AAA but most figure he will contribute in some way to the 2019 squad. Austin Hays could potentially get his call up this season, but I honestly am not counting on it. The O’s are in no rush and definitely don’t want to ruin his development so I think the most we see of Hays is a September call-up. Yusniel Diaz will probably get promoted to AAA by midseason this year but don’t expect to see him tearing up the league until sometime next season (probably in the summer). Yusniel is currently the Orioles’ top prospect and for good reason; Diaz has a cannon from RF and he has displayed his raw power and sweet swing in Cuba, the World Baseball Classic, the minors, and in spring training this season for the O’s. Mike Elias certainly wants to groom Yusniel and develop him into a legitimate star and have him under team control for as long as possible, so there is no reason to expect to see him anytime this season.
The Birds’ infield is where their situation gets cloudier. Sure, they have promise up the middle of the field as I said earlier, but each corner spot is a great big question mark (albeit in different ways). Renato Nunez is fairly unproven at third, and Chris Davis is coming off of the worst hitting season in MLB history. Davis couldn’t be that bad again if he tried to be, so I honestly think he’s due for a much better season this year. I don’t ever expect to see 2013 Crush Davis again, but I do think Chris can power 20-30 HRs and bat around .210 - .220 and be somewhat productive in the Orioles’ lineup again. Renato is the biggest wildcard on the team, in my opinion, he could have a breakout season and play better than anyone thinks he is currently or he could just be filling the position until the O’s get their next cornerstone at third. I thought he had some bright moments last season, but he will have to be much more consistent in 2019 and beyond if he plans on manning third base for the Orioles for the foreseeable future. The O’s have the promising young infielder Ryan Mountcastle waiting in the minors, and if it works out the right way for him (meaning Nunez has a down season) he could potentially get some time at 3B this season. Mountcastle is one of the Orioles’ top prospects and assuming he plays well enough if and when he gets his chance he could be the O’s man at the hot corner.
Behind the plate, I believe Chance Sisco is going to break through this season as one of the solid catchers in the MLB. Chance has been developing in the Baltimore system for years now, and I think he’s finally ready to make the jump to everyday catcher. Sisco has a nice, steady swing with some hidden pop in it and he is an above average defender behind the plate. Chance has played well throughout the minor leagues and has torn up the Grapefruit League this season, so there is reason to believe he could be the O’s catcher of the future...or is he?
To me, there are many good prospects in the draft pool for 2019, but there is a clear cut favorite to be drafted first overall by the Orioles when June rolls around: Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. “Clutchman” carried his Beavers to a College World Series title with his bat. He seemed to drive in every RBI in their run to the top, not to mention his exceptional defensive skill behind the plate. With someone like Adley being available at number one for the O’s to pick, it seems obvious what they should do. It’s not every day you land a clutch, power-hitting catcher who is also a very talented fielder. It’s not that simple, however, because there is another super prospect available to be taken in the 2019 draft. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. covers an incredible amount of ground in the field and has one of the sweetest swings I have ever seen by a high school player. Witt Jr. won the high school HR derby in 2018 and won the MVP honors in the All-American game. This decision alone makes me glad the birds have such intelligent leadership making decisions for them now. No matter who is chosen first between the two potential superstars, I know Elias, Mejdal & co. will make the correct decision for the Orioles moving forward. I am excited to see who they draft, and I know that whoever it may be will be a major impact player for the Orioles in the future. The O’s will most likely get a few more really good draft picks, so I can honestly see the Orioles getting their own core of four players very similar to what the Astros currently have thanks in part to Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal.
Mike Elias plans to build an international scouting pipeline to help bring talent to the organization. This did him wonders in Houston in both his lineup and pitching staff. This international scouting combined with Mejdal’s mind for analytics will revamp the Orioles’ pitching over time. Pitching will be the lengthiest part of the rebuilding process in Baltimore. It takes a while to develop pitching, but I do think that the Orioles have more than given credit for when it comes to their pitchers. With a full and healthy spring, Alex Cobb is due for a bounce-back year, and Andrew Cashner should also be more adjusted to pitching at the Yard. I believe both guys will have bounce-back seasons and the O’s will most likely be able to get something for them at the trade deadline. Dylan Bundy doesn’t have the promise that he once had, but if he can improve upon his consistency he could potentially right his ship and be a part of the team moving forward. David Hess and Mike Wright have the best chances of sticking around past this season. Both Hess & Wright will have the chance to develop their major league pitching in the back end of the Orioles’ rotation this season, and if one or both can build into a quality starter they could stick around and be a part of the future Orioles. Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier are both decent relief pitchers and will be the O’s best in 2019. I can see both being on the team for years to come and factoring into the Birds’ bullpen. Relief pitching prospects Tanner Scott and Branden Kline are the O’s best pen prospects and currently, I believe both have all the potential in the world to be powerhouse RPs in the distant future. All in all, the O’s unquestionably need to add on and build up their pitching, but they currently have a few pieces that could be quality players in the future and some others who will help them hang in games this season.
The Baltimore Orioles have a lot of work to do on all fronts to make their team a contender again, but I believe they have the correct regime in place to get the job done. I don’t expect it to be pretty at first but I honestly have faith in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, and Brandon Hyde based on their prior experience and success. Both the Astros and the Cubs suffered their lumps in the time building to their triumphs. If you’re an Orioles fan like I am and you feel like the birds lost everything and are doomed to be terrible for a long amount of time, don’t worry; Elias & Mejdal have done this before, and they have proven themselves to be great at their jobs. I have total belief that they will build the O’s in a similar way and time as their former club down in Houston. If you are willing to stick out the inevitable down years, I know the players, management, ownership, organization, and the fans will all be rewarded with the consistent success and then hopefully the World Series title they have been craving for so long. Who knows, in a couple of years maybe the O’s will be leading the charge in the AL East.
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