By: Nathaniel Ascher
A little less than two-thirds of the MLB season remains. As we head toward the middle of June and the All-Star break, contenders are starting to heat up, while rebuilding teams are continuing to do what they do. At the end of March, we made our predictions for the AL East in 2019. Here’s an UPDATED AL East standings prediction one-third of the way into the season:
1)Yankees - 98-64
In our last predictions, we thought that the Yankees would end up going 96-66 and come in 2nd place. That is not the case anymore. Due to their amazing contributions from fringe players like Domingo German and Gio Urshela, the Yankees have been able to handle the loss of some of their best players. If Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luis Severino all come back healthy, the Yankees will be able to break away from the pack and win their first division title since 2012, going 98-64 in the process.
2) Red Sox - 92-70
The Boston Red Sox have had an interesting start to the 2019 season. They struggled right off the bat, and turned things around in May. They currently, as of June 12th, are .500 with a 34-34 record. Their star players, including Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers are off to impressive starts in 2019, but that can’t be said about their remaining players. Eduardo Nunez, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Steve Pearce have all had atrocious starts to the season, and it looks like they won’t turn it around anytime soon. In order for the Red Sox to really challenge the Yankees for the division come September, they will have to get better performances from the bottom of their lineup, as well as make a few moves at the trade deadline. Otherwise, the division title will travel to the Bronx, and the Red Sox will go 92-70, 16 games worse than their record last season.
3) Rays - 91-71
Like always, the Tampa Bay Rays are playing better than expected. Currently, they are 41-26, fifteen games above .500 and .5 games behind the first place Yankees. They have been getting great contributions from Brandon Lowe, who is hitting .284 with 14 HRs, Charlie Morton, who is an outstanding 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA, and Austin Meadows, who has 12 HRs and 38 RBIs. Their bullpen has been great, as they have the second best bullpen ERA in the majors. Although their stars like Blake Snell, Tommy Pham, and Charlie Morton should be able to continue their great seasons, their stature in the AL East will be decided by players like Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and Yonny Chirinos. If they perform how we expect them to, they should end up going 91-71 in 2019 and be able to compete for an AL Wild Card spot.
4) Blue Jays - 62-100
The Toronto Blue Jays’ season has evolved around their young stars. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel have all had significant opportunities so far this year. However, they also have some “veterans” that they will be able to trade at the deadline for some prospects. These include Marcus Stroman, Justin Smoak, Ken Giles, and Aaron Sanchez. The Blue Jays have had a mediocre start to the season so far, as they have a 23-43 record. With decent players such as Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays should be able to do better than the Orioles and go 62-100 in 2019.
5) Orioles - 50-112
The Baltimore Orioles started off the 2019 season with a bang. They were over .500 after the first ten games of the season, but ever since then, they have been abominable. They currently are 21-45, and are already 20.0 games back of the Yankees in the AL East race. The Orioles don’t have many good trade assets, but one player to keep in mind is Trey Mancini. So far, Mancini has had an amazing 2019 season. In 248 ABs, he is hitting .298 with 13 HRs. The Orioles have said that they have been receiving offers for Mancini and are contemplating trading him. If they do, they may do worse than the 50-112 record we are expecting them to have.
Overall, the AL East Division race is just getting started. The Yankees and Rays are currently in a dog-fight for first place, while the Red Sox are not too far behind. The trade deadline will almost certainly have a big effect on the AL East divisional race, as well as the teams who are rebuilding in 2019.
Oh Lourdes, the division races have just begun!
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