By: Nathaniel Ascher
Spring Training is where every season starts. Teams have the ability here to test their top prospects, judge positional battles, and debut their newest acquisitions. Spring Training is a vital time for each team, and it can be used to help teams who are contenders or rebuilders. But, do the teams who make world series runs have great Spring Training records?
Note: S.T. stands for Spring Training and WS stands for World Series.
2006:
-Cardinals win World Series. Go 15-14 in Spring Training.
-Marlins have best Spring Training record(21-9). Fail to make playoffs.
-Reds have second best S.T. record. Fail to make playoffs.
Analysis: No correlation between teams who have great S.T. records and “make” playoffs.
2007:
-Red Sox win WS. Go 15-12 in S.T.
-Tigers have best S.T. record. Fail to make playoffs.
-Colorado goes 13-12 in S.T. and makes world series.
-All AL Teams who make playoffs have above .500 record in S.T.
-Phillies make playoffs with second worst N.L. S.T. record.
Analysis: Almost all of the teams who make the playoffs have above .500 S.T. records.
2008:
-The A’s, who have the best S.T. record, fail to make the playoffs.
-Dodgers, Red Sox, and White Sox all make playoffs with below .500 S.T. records.
-Phillies win W.S. with 12-18 S.T. record
-The Rays, who have the T-1st best S.T. record make World Series.
Analysis: You don’t have to have a great S.T. record to make the playoffs.
2009:
-The Yankees, who have the 2nd best S.T. record, win the WS.
-All AL playoff teams have above .500 S.T. records.
-One NL playoff team has below .500 S.T. record.
-The 2nd, 3rd and 5th best S.T. teams fail to make the playoffs.
Analysis: Most playoff teams will have an above .500 S.T. record.
2010:
-The Giants, who were the 3rd best S.T. team, won the WS.
-The worst AL S.T. team, the Rangers, made the playoffs and went onto the WS.
-Two AL playoff teams have under .500 S.T. records.
One NL playoff team has below .500 S.T. record (Reds).
Analysis: You can have a horrific S.T. record and still make a good playoff run.
2011:
-Half of the AL Playoff teams have below .500 S.T. records.
-The World Series winner, the St. Louis Cardinals, go 14-16 in S.T.
-The Rangers make the WS and go 13-16 in S.T.
-Half of the NL playoff teams have below .500 S.T. records.
Analysis: World Series teams aren’t the two teams who have the best S.T. records.
2012:
-Three of the five AL playoff teams have above .500 S.T. records.
-The Tigers, the eventual WS losers, have the 2nd best S.T. record.
-Three of the five NL playoff teams have below .500 S.T. records.
-The final four teams left all have above .545 S.T. records.
Analysis: Having a good Spring Training could be a sign that you can make a good playoff run.
2013:
-The eventual WS champion Red Sox have a .500 S.T. record.
-Three of the five NL playoff teams have below .500 S.T. records.
-Three of the final four remaining teams in the playoffs have equal to or above .500 S.T. records.
-Three of the four Wild Card teams have below .500 S.T. records.
Analysis: To make the playoffs you don’t necessarily need to have a good S.T. record, but the real WS contenders *usually* have decent springs.
2014:
-The Giants, who won the WS, have the 3rd best NL S.T. record.
-Four of the five AL playoff teams have above .500 S.T. records.
-Half of the final four remaining teams in the playoffs have above .500 S.T. records.
-The Indians and Rays, the teams who have the two best S.T. records, both miss out on the playoffs.
Analysis: An excellent Spring Training doesn’t mean you’re headed to the playoffs.
2015:
-The Royals and Mets have the 1st and 3rd best S.T. records, respectively, and went on to the W.S.
-The Rangers made the playoffs with the worst AL S.T. record.
-1 of the 5 NL Playoff Teams has a below .500 S.T. record.
-3 of the 4 remaining teams in the playoffs have above .500 S.T. records.
Analysis: Making the W.S. with a bad S.T. record is less likely than making it with an above .500 S.T. record.
2016:
-The Angels, who have the 3rd best S.T. record, fail to make the playoffs.
-The Chicago Cubs won the W.S. and have an 11-19 S.T. record.
-Half of the 4 remaining teams in the playoffs have below .500 S.T. records.
-The Nationals, who went 19-4 in S.T., lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Analysis: In this season, the great S.T. teams either did not make the playoffs or didn’t make a good run in them.
2017:
-The WS winners, the Houston Astros, went 15-15 in S.T.
-The WS losers, the L.A. Dodgers, one upped the Astros and went 18-17 in S.T.
-The Cardinals, who have the 2nd best S.T. record, fail to make the playoffs.
-Half of the four remaining teams in the playoffs have above .500 S.T. records.
Analysis: You can have an average Spring Training and still make the playoffs.
2018:
-The Red Sox have the best S.T. record and WIN the WS.
-Seven of the ten playoff teams have above .500 S.T. records.
-No team who has a below .400 S.T. record made the playoffs.
-Both teams who have an above .700 S.T. record make the playoffs.
Analysis: If you are excellent in S.T. you have a very good chance at making the playoffs.
Overall, there is some correlation between making the playoffs and having a good Spring Training record. For instance, the World Series winners in the last 13 years had above .500 S.T. records in eight of those years. Based on data, teams like the 2006 Marlins and the 2007 Tigers had amazing Spring Training records and failed to make the playoffs. Furthermore, the 2nd, 3rd and 5th best Spring Training teams all failed to make the playoffs. On the other hand, some World Series winners like the 2016 Chicago Cubs and the 2008 Phillies had underwhelming Spring Trainings. Thus, it is possible to have a bad Spring Training and make a deep playoff run, but based on all of my data collected above, most playoff teams have .500 or above Spring Training records.
Use the data above to formulate your own hypotheses!
With the season barely underway, look back on your team’s Spring Training and see what it may mean for their 2019 season.
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