By: Harold Klapper
A little over two weeks into the offseason, it’s time to assess how teams have lived up to their preseason expectations. In February of 2019, Bleacher Report released their predictions for the record of each AL East team. These predictions go as follows:
Red Sox: 101 wins
Yankees: 100 wins
Rays: 88 wins
Blue Jays: 68 wins
Orioles: 57 wins
As well as the predicted amount of wins for each team, we will use the odds on opening day for each team to win the World Series. These odds go as follows:
Red Sox: 6/1
Yankees: 6/1
Rays: 35/1
Blue jays: 90/1
Orioles: 600/1
Using the predicted wins and World Series odds from the beginning of the season, we will measure how each AL East team lived up to their expectations on a scale from 1-10.
Red Sox:
World Series Odds: 6/1
Predicted wins: 101
Actual wins: 84
As many Red Sox fans will attest, last season was one of the biggest let downs in the past couple of years. This was a team coming off a convincing World Series victory and had essentially the same roster. The only players who left the team were two bullpen pieces that didn’t end up faring well outside of Boston, Joe Kelley and Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox were tied with the Yankees and Astros for best odds to win the World Series. Not only did they fail to do this, but they didn’t make the playoffs. The Rays and Athletics, who have some of the lowest payrolls in baseball, managed to have better seasons than the Red Sox. The starting pitching fell apart and the offense seemed to shut down at critical moments. The only good thing to come out of the season was the emergence of Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts as legitimate major league talents. However, these two players weren’t enough to salvage the season. To say the Red Sox didn’t live up to their expectations would be an understatement, and they have a lot to fix before next year.
Meeting Expectations: 3/10
Yankees:
World Series Odds: 6/1
Predicted wins: 100
Actual wins: 103
After signing a multitude of free agents in the offseason, it’s clear that the Yankees were all in. The Yankees had their expectations set for the division title and a long playoff run. A World Series wasn’t fully expected, but then again New York is a demanding market. The regular season got difficult when injuries plagued the club, but they still managed to stay dominant with unlikely roster additions in Gio Urshela and Cameron Maybin. Grinding their way through the 162 game schedule, the Yankees picked up 103 wins and easily won the AL East divisionional title. In the postseason they clobbered the Twins in the first round and brought the Astros to game 6 in the ALCS. With their season ending on a walk-off homerun, the Yankees were close to a World Series appearance for the second time in three years. Their season lived up to expectations, but somehow it felt incomplete. Without a World Series appearance it’s hard to give the Yankees a rating over 7, but nevertheless they had a resilient and impressive season.
Meeting Expectations: 7/10
Rays:
World Series Odds: 35/1
Predicted wins: 88
Actual wins: 96
Who would have thought that the team with the lowest payroll in baseball would greatly exceed their expectations. No one thought that the Rays would manage to be one game away from the ALCS. Tampa Bay played great regular season baseball and managed to win almost 100 games with multiple IL stints from star pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Upon making the playoffs, they had an impressive victory over the Athletics and took on the Astros in the ALDS. The Rays managed to make the ALDS very competitive and almost eliminated the Astros from the postseason. Before the year started a loss in the Wild Card game would be acceptable but the Rays went above and beyond.
Meeting Expectations: 8/10
Blue jays:
World Series Odds: 90/1
Predicted wins: 68
Actual wins: 67
The Blue Jays had the year a lot of people thought they would of had last season: they were an extremely mediocre ball club. Nothing special came from last year and the Blue Jays also didn’t secure a brighter future. The most interesting part of the season was supposed to be Vladamir Guerrero Jr., the prospect that was supposed to change baseball. Guerrero Jr. had an underwhelming season and didn’t live up to the hype he brought to the Blue Jays. However, other prospects did perform up to expectations. Cavin Biggio and Bo Bichette contributed a lot to the team and gave Blue Jays fans something to watch throughout the year. Overall, the Blue Jays had a mediocre season with both underperforming and impressive prospects.
Meeting Expectations: 4/10
Orioles:
World Series Odds: 600/1
Predicted wins: 57
Actual wins: 54
No one had any type of expectations for the Orioles this year. They were a horrible ball club and were often referred to as a triple A team. Throughout the regular season they struggled to win games and gave up absurd amounts of home runs. Other teams looked forward to playing the Orioles and they were thought to be the worst team in the league. However, they managed to be the second worst team in baseball, which for them is exceeding expectations. Only the Detroit Tigers had a worse year and that’s something for the Orioles to be glad about. Regarding prospects, the Orioles didn’t have any breakout stars last year. They were simply a bad team that barely exceeded expectations by not being the worst team in the MLB.
Meeting Expectations: 6/10
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