MLB Service Time and a Realistic Expectation for Vlad Guerrero Jr's 2019 Season
- AL East Report
- Apr 23, 2019
- 4 min read
By: Nathaniel Ascher
If you’re an avid baseball fan, you should know that something special is about to happen. No, not Christian Yelich hitting 20 home runs before May, or the Yankees having most of their 25 man roster on the IL. Just like the Padres and White Sox already have done this year, the Blue Jays will finally call up their #1 prospect, Vlad Guerrero Jr., on Friday, according to multiple reports. This is the most highly anticipated call up in recent memory as Vlad Guerrero Jr. could potentially be MLB’s next star. Here is my realistic projection for Vlad Guerrero Jr’s 2019 season:
Before we talk about Vlad’ career minor league stats and my prediction for his rookie season, let’s first talk about Service Time and why it is a major problem in the MLB. Every MLB player receives Service Time for each day spent on the 25 man roster or the IL. Players account for one year of Service Time once they spend 172 days on the 25 man roster or IL. Furthermore, Service Time is useful because it helps determine when players are eligible for salary arbitration and free agency. For instance, players between three and six years of Service Time are eligible for salary arbitration, while players hit free agency after collecting six years of Service Time.
Now, what’s the problem with Service Time? Players like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez proved to everyone that they were ready for the Majors last year, yet they weren’t called up. Teams like the Blue Jays and Marlins currently have no incentive to bring up their young talents since they aren’t contending. They can just let their players sit in the minors while they are able to control them for an extra year! Think about it, fans of these teams have no incentive to go to Early April or Late September games, unless their top prospect(s) get called up. This is one of the many major problems in baseball that should be dealt with at the next CBA.
On the contrary, contending teams like the Mets and Padres made bold moves this season by calling up their young studs in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Pete Alonso on Opening Day. By doing this, they lost an extra year of Service Time on their players. If they had waited till around mid-late April to call up their top prospects, they wouldn’t have lost that extra year of Service Time. Nevertheless, they felt as if their prospects’ contributions to the first few weeks of the season would be significant, and they definitely were as Pete Alonso hit .325 with 8 HRs and Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .291 with 6 HRs. Overall, I commend the Mets and Padres for calling up their young studs and wish the Blue Jays did the same with Vlad Jr.
Now back to Vlad Guerrero Jr.
In the minors over the past few seasons, Vlad Guerrero Jr. has absolutely raked. In 119 games in 2017, Guerrero hit .323 with 13 home runs and 76 RBIs, as an 18 year-old. During this season he also walked more times (76) than he struck out (62). Guerrero proved everybody during the 2017 season that he was ready for the majors, but his 2018 season validated our inferences. In 2018, in just 95 games, Guerrero hit a whopping .381 with 20 home runs and 78 RBIs. Just like 2017, Guerrero had a very solid K-BB ratio in 2018, as he only had ONE more strikeout (38) than walk (37). So far in 2019, Guerrero has a slash line of .344/.432/.594 in nine games. He also already has two home runs, seven RBIs and four walks. It’s fair to say that Guerrero has proven to everybody that he’s ready to dominate in the majors. But, how good will Guerrero be in his rookie season?
If Guerrero gets called up on Friday, he would be eligible to play in 136 games. Due to his below average defense (career .938 Fld%), scheduled days off, and possible injuries, Guerrero will most likely play between 120-125 games in 2019. If this is the case, I expect him to have the following stats:
G 122
PA 535
AB 473
R 82
H 137
2B 28
3B 1
HR 24
RBI 89
SB 1
CS 3
BB 52
SO 88
BA .290
OBP .359
SLG .505
OPS .864
T B 239
Hopefully, my prediction for Vlad Jr.s rookie season seems realistic to you. Even though Guerrero has one of the best minor league careers in recent history, making the transition to the majors at such a young age could be an obstacle for him. Furthermore, Guerrero has tons of pressure to perform. He has been MLB’s #1 prospect for over a year and his father is in Cooperstown. Blue Jays fans, AL East fans, and MLB fans in general have been anticipating Vlad’s call up for months, and hopefully our anxiety will finally end this upcoming Friday at the Rogers Centre.
We hope you’re glad to see Vlad ‘cause we definitely are.
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