By: Nathaniel Ascher
The Yankees and Rays were able to make the playoffs despite not having luck on their side. Many of their key players, most notably Luis Severino, Tyler Glasnow, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Zunino, etc. were out for the majority of the 2019 season due to injuries. The other teams, however, had disappointing seasons from many star players, including Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Sanchez, and Mychal Givens. Did some of those players struggle in 2019 or was luck simply not on their side? Here is one player from each AL East team who got unlucky in 2019. They have their stats from 2019 as well as stats from one of their more impressive seasons, and an explanation as to why they should’ve had a better season overall.
Yankees: Gary Sanchez
2017 Statline: .278 with 33 HRs in 471 ABs with a slash line of .278/.345/.531.
2019 Statline: .232 with 34 HRs in 396 ABs with a slash line of .232/.316/.525
Stats 2017(Gary’s Breakout Season) 2019
GB% . 42.3% 32.1%
FB% 36.6% 47.6%
HR/FB 25.4% 26.4%
OPPO% 15.2% 20.7%
Hard % 36.9% 42.1%
BB% 7.6% 9%
2019 BaBIP: .244
Career BaBIP: .264
Explanation: Gary Sanchez was healthy for the majority of the 2019 season, but despite a power surge, he wasn’t able to replicate his impressive 2017 season, one where he had a slash line of .278/.345/.531 and hit 33 HRs. But, if you look into the analytics, luck wasn’t on Gary Sanchez’s side in 2019. His ground ball (GB) percentage DECREASED by 10 points and his fly ball (FB) percentage INCREASED by 10 points. His walk (BB) percentage went up around 1.5 points, from 7.6% to 9%. You would expect Sanchez to increase his SLG with the changes in these analytics, but that DECREASED as well from 2017 to 2019 by 6 points.
Moving to Gary Sanchez’s bat, the percentage that he hit the ball to the opposite field (OPPO%) INCREASED from 2017 to 2019 by around 5%. Hitting the ball to all parts of the field shows that you’re hitting the ball well, but the stats aren’t representative of that for Gary Sanchez. In addition, his HARD %, the percentage that he hit the ball hard, increased by around 5 points as well. Although these numbers suggest that Gary’s power should increase, and it did, his slash line should’ve improved as well. This would’ve made him a more complete hitter in 2019 and one that the Yankees could have more effectively deployed in the middle of their lineup.
Red Sox: J.D. Martinez
2018 Statline: .330 with 43 HRs in 569 ABs
2019 Statline: .304 with 36 HRs in 575 ABs
Stats 2018 2019
GB% 43.5% 42.8%
FB% 34.0% 34.8%
Soft % 10.9% 10.2%
Cent% 30.9% 32.4%
Hard % 44.9% 45.9%
BB% 10.6% 11.0%
2019 BaBIP: .342
Career BaBIP: .342
Explanation: J.D. Martinez had an amazing year in 2019. He hit over .300 with 35+ homers and a .900 + OPS. Yet, he still should’ve had a better season. His ground ball percentage went down compared to last season, his fly ball percentage increased, and he marginally drew more walks in 2019 than in 2018. All of these stats show that he at least should’ve had similar results for batting average and HRs in 2019.
Furthermore, shifting to the more sophisticated stats, Martinez hit the ball harder in 2019 than in 2018 due to his Soft % and Hard %. Also, he hit the ball to center field more, proving that his timing was spot on. Although a better year from J.D. Martinez doesn’t really push the Red Sox into playoff contention, it could’ve resulted in him opting out of his contract which would’ve had a major effect on free agency this winter.
Rays: Blake Snell
2018 Statline: In 180.2 IP, had a 1.89 ERA with a 0.974 WHIP and 221 K’s.
2019 Statline: In 107.0 IP, had a 4.29 ERA with a 1.271 WHIP and 147 K’s.
Stats 2018 2019
FB% 36.4% 36.3%
Pull% 33.8% 43.1%
Cent% 34.5% 27.7%
Oppo% 35.7% 34.8%
Soft% 18.1% 18.6%
Hard% 35.7% 34.8%
2019 BaBIP: .343
Career BaBIP: .294
Explanation: Blake Snell certainly did not have a season like his 2018 campaign, one where he won the CY Young and had a sub 2.00 ERA. Although his statline shows he was a league average pitcher in 2019, if you look deeper into the numbers, you would see glimpses of his remarkable 2018 season. His flyball percentage was almost exactly the same, and the percentage of balls hit to center field by the batter significantly decreased. Hitters also pulled the ball more, showing that he was able to mess with players’ timing this season.
In addition to players having trouble timing up his pitches, Blake Snell’s opponents also had struggled making solid contact against his pitches in 2019. Compared to 2018, his Cy Young season, Snell’s soft hit percentage was greater and his hard hit percentage was lower in 2019. In addition, the almost 40 point discrepancy between Snell’s 2019 BaBIP and career BaBIP is evident of his luck, or lack therof it, in 2019. Look for Snell to have a bounce back season in 2020 and guide the Rays to another playoff spot.
Blue Jays/Astros: Aaron Sanchez
2018 Statline: In 105.0 IP, had a 4.89 ERA with a 1.562 WHIP and 86 K’s.
2019 Statline: In 131.1 IP, had a 5.89 ERA with a 1.622 WHIP and 115 K’s.
Stats 2018 2019
K%-BB% 5.9% 7.8%
LOB% 70.1% 67.4%
FB% 31.7% 30.3%
O-Swing% 25.8% 26.6%
O-Contact% 59.8% 63.1%
Zone% 45.2% 48.1%
2019 BaBIP: .320
Career BaBIP: .281
Explanation: Aaron Sanchez may be one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. He has so much potential, but can never seem to put it all together. 2019 was another disappointing season for Sanchez as his ERA went up a full run. However, Sanchez analytically had a better season, even though the basic stats don’t show that. He had more strikeouts compared to walks, left fewer runners on base, and gave up fewer fly balls. All of these stats show Sanchez was more efficient in 2019 despite the results not being there for him.
When it comes to Sanchez’s opponents, the indications of a solid season were there as well. Compared to Sanchez’s 2018 season, batters saw more strikes and tended to swing at and make contact with more pitches outside of the zone against him in 2019. Sanchez’s 2019 season overall defied baseball logic: it should be easier for batters to hit pitches inside the strike zone than outside of it.
Orioles: Mychal Givens
2018 Statline: In 76.2 IP, had a 3.99 ERA with a 1.187 WHIP and 79 K’s.
2019 Statline: In 63.0 IP, had a 4.57 ERA with a 1.190 WHIP and 86 K’s.
Stats 2018 2019
WHIP 1.187 1.190
K/9 9.27 12.29
xFIP 4.11 3.62
GB/FB 0.93 0.96
LD% 24.1% 22.8%
IFH% 4.1% 9.1%
2018 BaBIP: .284
2019 BaBIP: .271
Explanation: Mychal, not Michael, Givens has been one of the Orioles’ best relievers over the past few seasons, which isn’t too impressive of a title. But despite compiling better analytics in 2019 than he did in 2018, he wound up having a worse season this year. Although his WHIP marginally increased this season, his K/9 ratio greatly increased, he had a lower xFIP, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio increased as well. Givens did give up the long ball at a concerning rate this season, but these numbers portray the fact that his pitches still have the ability to make batters look like toddlers at the plate.
Luck definitely played a factor in Givens’ 2019 season. His line drive percentage decreased, showing that batters had trouble accumulating high exit velocity hits against him this season. Furthermore, he gave up a lot more infield hits this season, which represents the Orioles’ “great” infield defense, especially in the late innings of games. Givens could be a trade candidate for the Orioles this winter or even at the deadline next season, but the Orioles should wait until he re-establishes himself as one of MLB’s elite relievers.
The only thing more unlucky in 2019 than these 5 players is the Astros getting caught for stealing signs.
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