By: Harold Klapper and Nathaniel Ascher
The 2018 MLB offseason was one to remember. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed record-breaking deals, many MVP caliber players signed to extensions, and a few impact played such as Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel remain on the market. Nevertheless, spring training has ended and Opening Day is literally right around the corner. So, here are our predictions for the AL East teams in 2019 and why:
Boston Red Sox:
Record: 98-64(1st place)
Last year the Boston Red Sox secured 108 wins in the regular season, a franchise record and the MLB’s best that year. This year, the team is essentially the same except for the loss of a couple relievers. In 2019 we can expect another division win for the Red Sox. We predict the Red Sox will go 98-64 for a couple different reasons:
1. Lineup - As of now, the Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball. Almost all of their lineup is the same and some young players are due to have a breakout year. To begin talking about the lineup we have to mention Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Both of these players are MVP caliber players and certainly won’t be slowing down in 2019. Along with Betts and Martinez, the Red Sox have young stars on the verge of great seasons. Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers both are players who have been consistently improving over the last few years. In 2019 they are predicted to have better seasons and many think they will turn into true stars this year. Not far behind is Jackie Bradley Jr.. Bradley Jr. is coming off playoff heroics during the Red Sox’s World Series run and 2019 just might be the year he stays consistent. Last year was an indication of Bradley Jr.’s potential and this year he will be making strides towards it. As if these core players aren’t enough, the Red Sox have one of the most productive shortstops in the league in Xander Bogaerts and consistent first basemen in Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce. The Red Sox’s lineup has few gaps, if any, and will be a primary reason why they make a push for the top of the AL East in 2019.
2. Bullpen - The one reason we didn’t predict the Red Sox to have a better record than last year is their bullpen. After the World Series they lost relievers Joe Kelly and closer Craig Kimbrel. As of now, there is no set closer and this will almost certainly be problematic during the regular season. Unlike the postseason, you can’t put in starting pitchers to close games. This means that the Red Sox will have to rely on either Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier to close. Although thesible, it’s highly unlikely that either of these relievers will be consistent in the position as closer. After having Craig Kimbrel last year, this is a huge downgrade for the Red Sox. As well as not having an established closer, their relievers in general aren’t that spectacular. Players such as Heath Hembree and Tyler Thornburg are simply unpredictable. It’s unknown whether they are trustworthy which leaves a huge question mark on the bullpen. For these reasons, we see the Red Sox having a great year, but having it limited because of their relief pitching.
Prediction: The Red Sox will go 98-64(1st place) and win the AL East for a 4th straight year.
New York Yankees:
Record: 96-66(2nd place)
In 2018, the Yankees finished with a 100-62 record, eight games behind their arch enemies, the Boston Red Sox. Even though many Yankees fans have been disappointed with their team’s playoff finishes in the past couple of seasons, they did lose to the eventual champs in the Astros in ‘17 and the Red Sox in ‘18.
However, in the 2018 offseason, the Yankees have greatly improved. They strengthened their rotation by trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. They also improved their bullpen by re-signing Zack(not Zach) Britton and signing New York native Adam Ottavino. In addition, on the offensive side of things, they added IF D.J. Lemahieu, SS Troy Tulowitzki, and OF Mike Tauchman. Don’t forget, the Yankees had one of the best offseasons out of any team in baseball, but there are two major problems that remain unaddressed that will negatively affect their 2019 season:
1. Injuries - In 2018, Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, and Aroldis Chapman all suffered major injuries that resulted in them missing a lot of time. In addition, Didi Gregorius will be out for the majority of the 2019 season, and Luis Severino will be out for the beginning of the season. His injury, rotator cuff inflammation, won’t just affect him until May. Injuries like this can nag a pitcher throughout the entire season, and this will most likely be the case with Severino. Furthermore, the Yankees have many other injury prone players, including Aaron Hicks, James Paxton, Troy Tulowitzki, and Gary Sanchez. Injuries could really make or break the Yankees 2019 season.
2. No True Ace - Although Luis Severino has ace-quality stuff, he has yet to put it all together in the bigs. In 2017 and 2018, Severino had a 2.98 and 3.39 ERA, respectively, with less than a 1.2 WHIP in both seasons. Yes, these are high quality numbers, but when it counts, Severino isn’t at his best. In 23 career postseason innings, Luis has a 6.26 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP. With Severino starting the season on the IL with a nagging injury, he won’t be his best in 2019. Furthermore, James Paxton, the Yankees newest starting pitching acquisition, has never pitched in the playoffs and is very injury prone as well. He has never pitched upwards of 161 IP in a season, and his career ERA+ is 118, not that of an ace. For instance, Corey Kluber has a career ERA+ of 137 and Chris Sale’s is 144. Although there weren’t any available aces on the free agent market this past offseason, the Yankees could look to the trade market for an ace, and could try and acquire SP Madison Bumgarner.
Prediction: Yankees will go 96-66(2nd place) and be the #1 Wild Card team for a third straight year.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Record: 85-77(3rd place)
In 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays had a breakout season on all fronts. They went 90-72 and barely missed out on the #2 Wild Card spot; they have the current AL Cy Young in Blake Snell, and they invented the ‘opener’ that will affect pitching strategies for years to come. We believe that they will not be able to replicate their 2018 campaign, but will be able to have another solid season in a tough AL east division. Here are two reasons why the Rays won’t be able to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees:
1. Pitching won’t be as good as it was in 2018 - With the use of opener, the Rays opened some eyes into the new world of analytics. Yes, it did work for them last year as they were 6th in the league in ERA, ahead of their division-rivals in the Red Sox and the Yankees. However, the opener will have some negative effects on the Rays in 2019. First of all, their relievers pitched a total of 824.1 IP in 2018, 160 more IP than the second most used bullpen! Inevitably, their relievers will experience fatigue throughout the 2019 season, causing them to not be able to pitch as much. And, when they do pitch, they won't be as effective. Another reason is that their relievers are all mediocre, unlike the Yankees, one of their other rivals for the division. Their bullpen had the 12th best ERA in the majors, barely above league average. Their starters carried the weight, having the 7th best ERA out of all starting pitching staffs in 2018. Blake Snell bloomed last year, and it will be ridiculously hard for him to repeat his 2018 campaign. Charlie Morton, their newest acquisition, is 34 years old and was dealing with injuries at the end of the 2018 season. And Tyler Glasnow, their last starter, has some upside but has yet to prove himself in the bigs. All of these factors will lead to the Rays having a worse pitching staff in 2019.
2. No Offensive Star - By trading Evan Longoria to the Giants after the 2017 season, the Rays lost their one and only offensive star. Longoria did not only produce by accumulating stats, as he was the Ray’s guy that they could count on in the clutch. His infamous Game 162 homer to bring the Rays into the playoffs in 2009 will be remembered forever. Now, without Longoria, the Rays don’t have that offensive star every world series contender needs. They did acquire Tommy Pham from the Cardinals last season at the trade deadline, but he has only hit 20+ homers twice in his career and has only batted over .300 ONCE. The rest of their lineup is filled with solid players who will make a positive impact for them in 2019, but they lack an offensive MVP caliber player. For instance, the Red Sox have Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the Yankees have Aaron Judge, the Astros have Altuve, Bregman, etc. Yes, the Rays don’t usually spend a lot of money on free agents, but their farm system is ranked #2 on mlb.com, so they can try and give up a few prospects for that big time bat. Some players that they could look to try and acquire are florida native Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu. The Rays will never be on the same pedestal as the Yankees and Red Sox unless they acquire an offensive juggernaut.
Prediction: Rays will go 85-77(3rd place) in 2019 and contend for the #2 AL Wild Card spot.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Record: 75-87(4th place)
Despite their record last year and our projected record for them in 2019, the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most exciting teams in baseball. They have some solid players like Justin Smoak and Ken Giles, some breakout candidates in Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and some comeback candidates in Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. Nevertheless, the Blue Jays are lacking elite hitters and pitchers, but they have a few highly touted prospects on the way up. Vlad Guerrero Jr will be called up once he recovers from his strained patellar tendon in his left knee. Furthermore, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio could all make their MLB debuts in 2019. Although the Blue Jays will be a fun team to follow throughout 2019, they won’t be that good in the end. Here are two reasons why they won’t make the playoffs in 2019:
1. One of the worst pitching staffs - The Toronto Blue Jays just don’t have a below average pitching staff, they have one of the worst in the league. In 2018, their pitching staff ranked 27th in ERA, 23rd in FIP, 27th in WAR, 3rd worst in BaBIP, and 8th worst in BB/9. All of these stats show how bad the Blue Jays pitching staff was in 2018, and why it was a main factor in them having a 73-89 record. The only addition they made to their staff in this past offseason is 35 year-old Clayton Richard, who has a career ERA of 4.46. Although Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman could have better 2019 campaigns than their 2018 ones, the Blue Jays pitching staff as a whole won’t improve that much compared to then likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, etc.
2. No Elite Players - When you think of the Toronto Blue Jays, either Vlad Guerrero Jr. or Joe Carter probably pop up in your mind. The first, although a highly touted prospect, has yet to play an MLB game and the latter isn’t even on the team anymore. Other teams, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, have many elite players such as Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Chris Sale, Aroldis Chapman, and the list goes on and on. These players don’t only help you on the field, they also sell you tickets, merchandise, and increase your attendance drastically. In order for the Blue Jays to be able to compete with teams that have elite players, they need Vlad Guerrero Jr. to turn into a phenom that he is projected to be. Even if this happens, they still need to acquire elite players via free agency or the trade market because you can’t make a playoff run with only one offensive star(aka the Angels).
Prediction: The Toronto Blue Jays will go 75-87(4th place) and fail to make the playoffs for a 3rd straight year.
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 43-119(Last place)
It’s known around the league that the Orioles were horrid last year. If anything, they’re going to be even worse in 2019. Last season the Orioles only managed to win 47 games, an embarrassing feat. Their team hasn’t gotten better, in fact they’ve gotten worse. We predict the Baltimore Orioles to rack up 43 wins and lose an astonishing 119 games, here’s why:
1. The Orioles' Lineup - There isn’t any good news when it comes to the Orioles and batting, or offense in general. In 2018, the Orioles were 29th in OBP which displays their struggle to even get runners on base. This is part of the reason why they lost 115 games and part of the reason why they had to trade away all their impactful players such as Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. Without any impactful players the Orioles are sure to have a worse offensive season than they did last year, which is pretty hard to do. No matter what way you dissect the Orioles’ offense, it’s going to be essentially non-apparent in 2019.
2. The Orioles' Pitching staff - As if the offense wasn’t bad enough, the Orioles have one of the worst, if not the worst pitching staff in the MLB. The Orioles’ rotation is as shaky as a rotation can be and no one should expect any consistency from their starters. Regarding the bullpen, the Orioles have a slightly below average ‘pen. Their best reliever is Mychal Givens and even he isn’t so great on paper. In 2018, Givens had an ERA of 3.99 and was a below average reliever compared to similar players around the league. Looking at the complete pitching staff for the Orioles it’s a fair assumption that they will be a mediocre group of players who will have to fight for every win.
The 2019 AL East teams will live up to our predictions, hopefully.
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