By: Nathaniel Ascher
It’s the last weekend without Major League Baseball. Four months ago in early March, MLB postponed spring training due to the spike of COVID-19 in the U.S and around the world. While we continue to see case spikes in many states around our nation, health officials, Rob Manfred, Tony Clark, and the MLB owners came together to formulate an MLB season that satisfied everyone. The stressful, frustrating labor disputes between MLB owners and the MLBPA over the past couple of months have been pushed to the side for now. For the rest of the summer, we can focus on the game we love - baseball. While we physically can’t be at the ballpark, we will still be able to watch our favorite teams and players, eat hot dogs, peanuts, cracker jacks, and see what team will become the 2020 World Series champions.
The following changes have been made to the baseball season itself: 60 games, new “conferences,” and the trade deadline moved to August 31. Other modifications to the game of baseball include a 3 batter minimum rule for relief pitchers, a universal DH, and a runner starting on 2nd base at the beginning of every extra inning. We at AL East Report will certainly break down how these changes will affect not only the season itself, but the players’ statistics and award races. In the year 2020, when nothing has gone right so far, it only makes sense for baseball to test out some potential, fascinating changes to the game.
Over the next couple days, we will release our predicted standings for each division in baseball. Then, we will go through the playoffs and predict which team we think will become the 2020 World Series champions. If you disagree with our predictions, let us know by commenting on our instagram post for each division or by privately messaging us. We love interacting with our readers and talking baseball.
With all of that being said, it’s time for you guys, our readers, to see our predicted standings for the AL East division for the truncated 2020 MLB season!
1. Tampa Bay Rays (37-23)
The Tampa Bay Rays will be one of MLB’s most fascinating ball clubs in 2020. Manager Kevin Cash is the cream of the crop when it comes to contemporary, moneyball managers. Blake Snell and Charlie Morton are two of the most talented starting pitchers, and the sneaky additions of OFs Yoshi Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez, and Hunter Renfroe could provide some much needed power to the Rays lineup. Here is a breakdown of every series and how many games I project them to win:
Blue Jays (July 24-26): 2-1
Braves (July 27-30): 2-2
Orioles (July 31-August 2): 3-0
Red Sox (August 4-5): 2-0
Yankees (August 6-9): 2-2
Red Sox (August 10-13): 3-1
Blue Jays (August 14-16): 2-1
Yankees (August 18-20): 2-1
Blue Jays (August 21-24): 2-2
Orioles (August 25-27): 2-1
Marlins (August 28-30): 1-2
Yankees (August 31-September 2): 1-2
Marlins (September 4-6): 2-1
Nationals (September 7-8): 1-1
Red Sox (September 10-13): 2-2
Nationals (September 15-16): 2-0
Orioles (September 17-20): 2-2
Mets (September 21-23): 2-1
Phillies (September 25-27): 2-1
Final record: 37-23
The Tampa Bay Rays will win the AL East in 2020! You heard it here first! Over the past couple of years, the Rays have become one of the powerhouses in the American League. They have an elite pitching rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough, and Yonny Chirinos. They have an amazing bullpen, highlighted by Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, Chaz Roe, etc. They have a solid infield with Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, and Yandy Diaz. Their outfield is stacked. And, they have prospects. Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Nate Lowe to name a few. Kevin Cash and the Rays’ front office should use their weapons to strategically beat the Yankees and claim their first AL East title in 10 years.
2. New York Yankees (35-25)
According to Sports Illustrated (https://www.si.com/), the New York Yankees will have one of the easiest schedules in 2020. While they face the Nationals, Red Sox, Rays, Braves, Phillies, and Mets in July and August, the Yankees will finish off the season playing against the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays. The latter three are arguably the worst teams in baseball. If the Yankees want to stay ahead of the Rays, they will have to come out of the gates strong and play at least .550 baseball in July and August before they can steamroll their way through September. Here is a breakdown of every series and how many games I project them to win:
Nationals (July 23 - 26): 1-2
Phillies (July 27-30): 3-1
Red Sox (July 31-August 2): 2-1
Orioles (August 3-5): 2-1
Rays (August 6-9): 2-2
Braves (August 11-12): 1-1
Red Sox (August 14-17): 3-1
Rays (August 18-20): 1-2
Mets (August 21-23): 1-2
Braves (August 25-26): 0-2
Mets (August 28-30): 2-1
Rays (August 31-September 2): 2-1
Orioles (September 4-6): 3-0
Blue Jays (September 7-9): 1-2
Orioles (September 10-13): 3-1
Blue Jays (September 15-17): 2-1
Red Sox (September 18-20): 1-2
Blue Jays (September 21-24): 3-1
Marlins (September 25-27): 2-1
Final record: 35-25
While some may expect the Yankees to be one of the best teams in baseball this year, one injury can prevent them from having an exceptional season. Gerritt Cole, the Yankees new ace, should be in contention for the 2020 AL Cy Young Award. Aaron Judge, DJ Lemahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton also all have a chance to win the 2020 AL MVP Award. However, one Giancarlo Stanton hamstring injury, an Aaron Judge shoulder injury while making a diving catch, or a positive COVID-19 test result could all seriously harm the Yankees and deter them from winning the AL East title this year. Last year, they were able to cash in from Gio Urshela and others while their big stars were hurt. Will they be able to do the same this year? Probably not to the same extent.
I myself am a Yankees fan. We SHOULD win our division this year. We have undoubtedly one of the best teams in baseball. Our rotation is now elite with the addition of Gerritt Cole. Our lineup should be improved with hopefully fully healthy seasons from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Our bullpen is still one of the best in the game, even if closer Aroldis Chapman will miss the first few games of the season due to COVID-19. There is no way the Yankees don’t make the playoffs this year. However, if they suffer some injuries and don’t get results from players such as James Paxton, Gio Urshela, Miguel Andujar, and Bret Gardner, they may see themselves host the Wild Card game for the second time in three years.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (28-32)
The Toronto Blue Jays, or the Buffalo Blue Jays, have one of the most intriguing rosters in all of baseball. Their lineup is stacked with young talent, including Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Cavan Biggio. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark are two veteran starters, while Nate Pearson and Ryan Borucki are two young pitchers with loads of potential. Ken Giles headlines the bullpen, but if the Blue Jays get off to a rough start, he will become a highly sought after trade asset.
Here is a breakdown of every series and how many games I project them to win:
Rays (July 24-26): 1-2
Nationals (July 27-30): 2-2
Phillies (July 31-August 2): 2-1
Braves (August 4-6): 0-3
Red Sox (August 7-9): 1-2
Marlins (August 11-12): 1-1
Rays (August 14-16): 1-2
Orioles (August 17-19): 2-1
Rays (August 21-24): 2-2
Red Sox (August 25-27): 2-1
Orioles (August 28-31): 3-1
Marlins (September 1-2): 2-0
Red Sox (September 3-6): 2-2
Yankees (September 7-9): 2-1
Mets (September 11-13): 1-2
Yankees (September 15-17): 1-2
Phillies (September 18-20): 0-3
Yankees (September 21-24): 1-3
Orioles (September 25-27): 2-1
Final record: 28-32
While two games below .500 seems pretty awful, the Blue Jays are most certainly making progress in their rebuild and are only a couple years away from competing for the AL East crown. Look for Nate Pearson to be an up and coming front of the rotation starter as he makes his debut in 2020. Now a first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be able to focus more on his hitting. He admitted that he suffered from fatigue in 2019, and due to the season being only 60 games in 2020, Guerrero should be able to give every at-bat his all. Other players to look out for this season include Bo Bichette, Ken Giles, who becomes a free agent at year's end, Travis Shaw, and Teoscar Hernandez. While I would be shocked if the Blue Jays made the playoffs this season, it should nevertheless be fun to watch their young studs develop into all-stars.
4. Boston Red Sox (26-34)
The 2018 World Series Champion Red Sox seem very far away from us right now. Their rotation is hurt, evident by Nathan Eovaldi of all people being their opening day starter. Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman are the only two reliable relievers in their bullpen. While their lineup is still stacked, they lost their franchise player in Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.
Here is a breakdown of every series and how many games I project them to win:
Orioles (July 24-26): 2-1
Mets (July 27-30): 1-3
Yankees (July 31-August 2): 1-2
Rays (August 4-5): 0-2
Blue Jays (August 7-9): 2-1
Rays (August 10-13): 1-3
Yankees (August 14-17): 1-3
Phillies (August 18-19): 1-1
Orioles (August 20-23): 3-1
Blue Jays (August 25-27): 1-2
Nationals (August 28-30): 2-1
Braves (August 31- September 2): 0-3
Blue Jays (September 3-6): 2-2
Phillies (September 8-9): 1-1
Rays (September 10-13): 2-2
Marlins (September 14-16): 1-2
Yankees (September 18-20): 2-1
Orioles (September 22-24): 2-1
Braves (September 25-27): 1-2
Final record: 26-34
Out of all the AL East teams, the Red Sox obtain the most variance. I could see them clinching a Wild Card spot and finishing in 2nd/3rd place. In order for this to happen, however, J.D. Martinez would have to be the best DH in all of baseball, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers would have to be contenders for the AL MVP award, and Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo would have to play up to their potential. In regards to pitching, Nathan Eovaldi and E-rod would have to be “all-stars”, and Darwinzon Hernandez, Brain Johnson, and others would have to be solid back end of the rotation starters. For their bullpen, Brandom Workman, Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Josh Taylor, and others would have to be reliable relievers. Personally, I see the Red Sox having one of the best lineups in baseball, but one of the worst pitching staffs as well. It will be exciting to see how this team does with a shortened season.
5. Baltimore Orioles (17-43)
In a 60 game season, you would think that the Orioles would have the best chance for them to make the playoffs in the past couple years. Nope! While the Orioles could be the underdogs of all underdogs, their team flat out stinks. They DFA’d Jonathan Villar, one of their best hitters in 2019, and replaced him with the weak Jose Iglesias. Trey Mancini, their “star” outfielder, is out for the 2020 season with colon cancer. Their only reliable starter is John Means, while their bullpen may not even be the best in AAA. Some prospects may make their debuts in 2020, which could be exciting, but the Orioles will definitely be MLB’s worst team in 2020.
Here is a breakdown of every series and how many games I project them to win:
Red Sox (July 24-26): 1-2
Marlins (July 27-30): 1-3
Rays (July 31-August 2): 0-3
Yankees (August 3-5): 1-2
Nationals (August 7-9): 2-1
Phillies (August 11-13): 1-2
Nationals (August 14-16): 0-3
Blue Jays (August 17-19): 1-2
Red Sox (August 20-23): 1-3
Rays (August 25-27): 1-2
Blue Jays (August 28-31): 1-3
Mets (September 1-2): 1-1
Yankees (September 4-6): 0-3
Mets (September 8-9): 0-2
Yankees (September 10-13): 1-3
Braves (September 14-16): 1-2
Rays (September 17-20): 2-2
Red Sox (September 22-24): 1-2
Blue Jays (September 25-27): 1-2
Final record: 17-43
The Orioles SHOULD be able to take one game out of most of their three game series’. If they can’t even do that, they could percentage wise have the worst season of all time. Are there any positives that could arise from this season for the Orioles? There could be a few. Maybe the Orioles can get a couple decent prospects for Mychal Givens. Adley Rutschman, the #1 pick of the 2019 MLB draft, could make his debut in September. So could Ryan Mountcastle. Hopefully Trey Mancini will have a safe recovery from colon cancer. Oh, I’m forgetting about Chris Davis. As I’ve said before, anything is possible in a 60 game season. If Chris Davis gets hot, could he return to his former self?
There is always that team who is destined to finish last in the division. Everyone knows it. Even the Orioles, Yet, when you have nothing to lose, you can cherish every good moment and opportunity in due time. And that’s what the Orioles will do this year. They will learn from their mistakes and prepare for a difficult, yet hopefully rewarding rebuild.
And there you have it. The Rays will win the AL East in 2020. The Yankees will finish second and obtain the #1 Wild Card spot in the AL. Lower down in the division, the Blue Jays and Red Sox will battle it out for 3rd and 4th place, while the Orioles will undoubtedly finish in last. Compared to other divisions in baseball, the AL East is definitely top heavy. The Rays and Yankees should definitely make the postseason and have a good chance at facing one another in the Championship series. While it is improbable that the Red Sox or Blue Jays will make the playoffs, in a 60 game season you never know what will happen. Here’s to a healthy, successful, and complete 2020 season for the AL East. One that we will do our best to cover for you in this bizarre, unpredictable world we live in.
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